As we head into the World Cup break there is a solid argument to be made that Bayern Munich is the best club team in the world. The numbers from statistical analysis site 538 back that up.
For those not familiar with the site, 538 is run by stats and numbers guru, Nate Silver, who made his bones analyzing American political poll data and using it to predict electoral outcomes (hence the name of his site). Since then the site has broadened its focus (and revenue streams) to areas such as sports analysis. 538 uses various algorithms and data sets to rank the quality of professional clubs around the world, and then converts that into win probabilities for individual games and competitions.
Currently the 538 system (which relies on virtually no opinion) ranks Bayern as the best club in the world with a SPI (Soccer Power Index) rating of 92.6, followed by Manchester City at 91.2 and FC Barcelona at 88.5.
Essentially that number represents the likelihood that team would win a match against an average team from their index on a neutral field.
Beyond simply being ranked the strongest team in the world, Bayer are considered by 538 to be the most likely to win the Champions League at 24% with Man City once again in second place at 20%.
And if you are curious, their model suggests our chance of winning the Bundesliga this season is 93%.
If 538’s analysis is correct, Bayern fans have a lot of success to look forward to this season.