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The Calm Before: The Clinching Scenarios in Matchday 9 of the 21/22 UEFA Champions League Group Stage

The next four Champions League editions of The Calm Before will tackle clinching scenarios starting with this one.

Final training FC Bayern Photo by Matthias Balk/picture alliance via Getty Images

There are still four total matchdays left in this competition, but some groups and teams can decide their fate before the final days. As always there are locks, there are dark horses, and then there’s Team Chaos — wherein all the madness ensues.

We’ll dive into all of those as we look to see who can clinch things today, who could be eliminated, and who needs all the help they can get.

We will also be releasing one of these tomorrow (and sorry, this is all we’ll be covering).

Final training FC Bayern Photo by Matthias Balk/picture alliance via Getty Images

Group E

Current standings: 1) FCB — 12 pts 2) BAR — 6 pts 3) SLB — 4 pts 4) DYN — 1 pt

Bayern Munich has dominated this group from beginning to end — becoming the first team to qualify for the knockout stages this season. It should be an easy game for them against last place Dynamo Kiev — who need a win in order to keep their dream alive — but quarantine and injuries have hit a number of players. As for Barcelona, the Blaugranas can clinch the knockouts with a win over a Benfica who need three points to stay alive.

Who’s clinched knockouts: Bayern Munich
Who’s eliminated: None

Who can clinch:

  • Bayern Munich:
    Can clinch 1st in the group with a win OR a draw + Barcelona draw/lose
  • Barcelona:
    Clinches knockouts with win v. Benfica

Who can be eliminated:

  • Dynamo Kiev:
    Eliminated with loss + Benfica win OR draw + Benfica win OR Barcelona win OR draw + BAR-SLB draw
  • SL Benfica:
    Eliminated with loss

Manchester United Training Session Photo by Matthew Peters/Manchester United via Getty Images

Group F

Current standings: 1) MAN — 7 pts 2) VCF — 7 pts 3) ATA — 5 pts 4) BSC — 3 pts

Herein lies our first Team Chaos scenario. Nobody here can clinch the knockout stages this weekend, but the only thing that needs to happen in order to achieve the insanity result is to have United and Villarreal draw while Young Boys win over Atalanta. If that happens, then every team has the chance to make the knockouts.

Who’s clinched: None
Who’s eliminated: None
Who can clinch: None

Who can be eliminated:

  • BSC Young Boys:
    Eliminated with loss OR draw with Atalanta + ATA-MAN draw

FC Red Bull Salzburg v FC Admira Wacker - Admiral Bundesliga Photo by Hans Peter Lottermoser/SEPA.Media /Getty Images

Group G

Current standings: 1) SLZ — 7 pts 2) LOSC — 5 pts 3) WOB — 5 pts 4) SEV — 3 pts

Now *claps hands* who’s ready for some REAL chaos. There are not one, but TWO scenarios where Team Chaos emerges victorious. First is if Lille beat Salzburg and Sevilla beat Wolfsburg. That sets us up with an 8-7-6-5 table where technically, the teams with 6 points and 5 points can advance to the knockouts. The second is equally chaotic with a possibility of an 8-6-6-5 table heading into the final day. We could see any team in the knockouts. We could see any team in first place. We could see Sevilla or Wolfsburg knocked out of European competition. It’s all to play for for this group

Who’s clinched: None
Who’s eliminated: None

Who can clinch:

  • FC Salzburg:
    Clinch knockouts with win v. Lille AND either Wolfsburg or Sevilla win

Who can be eliminated:

  • Sevilla FC:
    Eliminated with a loss


Group H

Current standings: 1) JUV — 12 pts 2) CFC — 9 pts 3) ZSP — 3 pts 4) MFF — 0 pts

This is the simplest group going into the penultimate game. If Juventus wins, they lock up first place. If Chelsea wins, they keep the fight for that top spot alive. But they both are safe in their knockout places. Now, with the pressure relatively off, expect a fun and free flowing performance from these two great sides.

Who’s clinched knockouts: Juventus and Chelsea
Who’s eliminated: Zenit St. Petersburg and Malmo

Who can clinch:

  • Juventus
    Clinches top spot in group with win over Chelsea

Here are all the games played on Tuesday (all times Eastern Daylight US):


  • Dynamo Kiev v. FC Bayern München (Olympic National Sports Complex - Kiev, UKR)
  • Villarreal CF v. Manchester United FC(Estadio de la Cerámica - Villarreal, Comunidad Valenciana, ESP)


  • FC Barcelona v. SL Benfica (Camp Nou - Barcelona, Catalonia, ESP)
  • Chelsea FC v. Juventus FC (Stamford Bridge - Fulham, London, GBR)
  • LOSC Lille v. FC Salzburg (Stade Pierre-Mauroy - Villeneuve d’Ascq, Nord, FRA)
  • Malmö FF v. FC Zenit Saint Petersburg (Malmö New Stadium - Malmö, Scania, SWE)
  • Sevilla FC v. VfL Wolfsburg (Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán - Sevilla, Andalucía, ESP)
  • BSC Young Boys v. Atalanta BC (Stadion Wankdorf - Bern, CHE)

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