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Bayern Munich get their Champions league campaign going again today with a Match day 3 pairing away at Olympiakos F.C. Coming off a run of less than stellar form Bayern will look to get back on the right track on a tough road environment in Greece.
The over covered last week as predicted, but Bayern was sloppy finishing and gave away a point late to allow a draw Augsburg had no right to. (Lewandowski missed an open look 1v1 with goal keeper, Gnabry off the woodwork, Müller missed open net etc)
Previous UCL matches
Bayern so far has beaten Red Star Belgrade at home 3-0 and smashed Tottenham Hotspur away 7-2.
Olympiakos held Tottenham 2-2 at their rowdy home venue, while losing 3-1 against Red Star. However, they were winning 1-0 until a 57’ red card after which they conceded all 3 goals.
Key Points
Bayern lost key defensive cog Niklas Süle to injury last Bundesliga match with a torn ACL and meniscus. They are going to have to solidify their back line and improve on defense.
Alaba on tomorrow's game: "I think Olympiacos are very strong at home with their crowd behind them. We saw that in the 2-2 draw against Tottenham. They have very fast players on the wings. We have to be prepared for what awaits us here tomorrow. It will be a great atmosphere"
— Bayern & Germany (@iMiaSanMia) October 21, 2019
Olympiakos is undefeated in their last 10 games vs European competition at home. Bayern have won the last 4/4 meetings.
• FC Bayern are unbeaten in 10 Champions League away games in a row (11 would be a club record)
— Bayern & Germany (@iMiaSanMia) October 21, 2019
• Bayern have won their last 5 games against Greek teams, scoring 17 goals and conceding 0. #OLYFCB pic.twitter.com/yiZBbdI95o
The lines
Money Line
Bayern -269
Olympiacos +711
Draw +429
Total Goals
Over/Under 3 -110
Goal Differential
Bayern -1.5 goals
Olympiacos +1.5 goals
Bayern are mild favorites here, but I feel pretty confident that they will take home the victory. Even in their disappointing showings lately they have been creating tons of offensive chances, they just haven’t been converting them. After the abysmal early and late concessions vs Augsburg I think there will be a renewed focus by the new defensive back line to bring their lunch pails and get to work.
Bayern will should be able to score given their offensive form, but winning by 2 goals away from home isn’t an easy ask. I think the Bavarians will win 2-0 and keep their first clean sheet in awhile, but all the build up data suggests they will concede a goal. So I don’t think this a good value play for Bayern unless you think Olympiacos will keep it tight and take the plus points.
The over/under isn’t a good value pick either, considering you’d need 4 goals to win.
Lineups
Olympiacos will be without their starting attacking midfielder Yassine Benzia after his red card last match.
Bayern obviously has to rework the defense without Süle, but I like the Kimmich/Pavard/Hernandez/Alaba back line. Kovac will continue to roll with his preferred offensive lineup (I’ll eat my socks if Müller starts).
Prediction
Die Roten win 2-0.
The over/under is a tough pick and having to eat the 1.5 goals isn’t the best play. I think the only smart bet today is to lay the money and take Bayern straight up.