Bavarian Betting Works: FC Augsburg vs Bayern München betting preview

Bayern München kicks off away at FC Augsburg when the Bundesliga gets back going this weekend after the international break. Currently Bayern and Augsburg stand at third and fourteenth respectively in the Bundesliga standings. It has been a pretty tight race so far all the way through the top 10. Bayern really needs a strong showing after their costly defeat at home last match vs Hoffenheim. Taking all that into consideration, how would a gambling man size up Bayern’s odds?

Key points

• Bayern have won 7 of their last 8 matches vs Augsburg
• Augsburg beat Eintracht at home in September 2-1, but they have been pasted by top teams Dortmund/Leverkusen/Mönchengladbach by a combined scoreline of 13-2.
• Thomas Müller looks to get the start this week in place of an over-traveled Philippe Coutinho and has had excellent form over his career vs Augsburg.

The lines

Straight up

Bayern -605

Augsburg +1488

Draw +660

O/U Total goals

3.75 goals (4 total goals wins partial money and 5 goals gets a full pay

out)

Goal differential

+- 2.25 goals

Bayern are pretty heavy favorites in this one. You would have to risk $605 to win $100 on a victory.

If you’re a lunatic Augsburg fan with a notion of an upset, your $100 bet would net you a nice $1488 payday. (Save yourself the pain and wait for next week.)

Photo by Christian Kaspar-Bartke/Bongarts/Getty Images

The over/under goal total is an interesting option to look at with the Bayern offense in fine form. Lewandowski and Gnabry (Sergendowski???) are on absolute fire, but the Bavarians have kept only two clean sheets this season, namely, against Shalke and FC Köln. So a 4-goal match total is entirely reasonable.

The goal differential is wide enough (2.25 goals) that, if you think it may be a tight match after the long break, then taking Augsburg +2.25 might be your play. Bayern would need to win by 3 goals for you to lose.

Lineup

It will be interesting to see how Kovac manages the lineup coming off international break as much of Bayern’s starting XI put in significant minutes. It seems at least Coutinho will be rested and there have been hints that Javi Martinez might start in the midfield.

I’m anticipating at least some rest rotation for the wingers with Gnabry or Coman getting a break from the Croatian Ivan Perisic, be it starting or off the bench.

Prediction

Bayern take 3 points from this one with a 4-1 victory. The Ramdeuter-inspired offense stays hot, but defense is a little sloppy after the break, leading to an Augsburg goal.

I feel pretty confident this week about risking the 6-1 odds on Bayern winning outright but the better value bet this week is the over, so you’re not laying out so much risk.