Jann-Fiete Arp reportedly decides to join Bayern

According to a report published by Sport Bild, 17-year-old striker Jann-Fiete Arp has decided to join Bayern Munich this summer. While rumors involving the German youth-international have swirled for months now, the report states that Arp decided three weeks ago that his best career move would be to reject a contract extension from Hamburg and move to Bavaria this summer.

There is, however, a scenario in which Hamburg hold on to their talented striker. Should Hamburg be able to avoid relegation, Arp could decide to stay at Hamburg and potentially extend his contract.

Hamburg are currently situated in 17th place, five points behind Mainz in 16th and seven points behind 15th-placed Wolfsburg. FiveThiryEight’s Bundesliga forecast gives Hamburg a 90 percent chance of being relegated, based on thousands of simulations of the remaining games.

Acquiring Arp would involve Bayern sending a handsome chunk of change over to Hamburg. The rumored fee for Arp is €8 million, which is roughly what Bayern paid to acquire Joshua Kimmich from Stuttgart three years ago. It would see them beat out Dortmund for Arp’s services.

Should Arp indeed move to Bayern, the next logical step would be a loan-move to another Bundesliga team that would allow him to gain valuable experience at the highest possible level. Playing time behind the likes of Robert Lewandowski, should he stay at Bayern past this season, and Sandro Wagner will be hard to come by.

Arp moved to Hamburg in 2010 at the age of 10 and first played for their U-17 team during the 2015/16 season. Two years (and 46 goals in 52 games) later, Arp made his Bundesliga debut, a one-minute appearance against Werder Bremen. He scored his first goal three weeks later in his second game, this time against Hertha BSC Berlin.

Coincidentally, Arp won the Fritz Walter Medal in Gold last year ahead of Bayern U-19 defender Lars Lukas Mai, who looks set to move to Hamburg this summer along with teammate Manuel Wintzheimer in search of first team football. By coincidence—or perhaps not, given Bayern’s interest in Arp—Wintzheimer is also a striker (31 goals in 34 games).