Arjen Robben is out for the next six weeks. Douglas Costa still hasn’t recovered from his injury in preparation for Copa America 2016 and will miss the Olympics. Franck Ribery is still 33-years-old. The Bayern Munich wide attacking player pool is relatively shallow and pre-season only just started seven days ago. While Costa and Robben are expected back before the end of August, there also isn’t a Bayern Munich fan alive who isn’t rolling their eyes in exasperation given the injury history of this club over the past three seasons.
So there’s some semblance of logic when Leroy Sane’s father, Souleymane Sane, told Sky News "Real Madrid and Bayern are also still in the mix." Leroy is the subject of heavy interest from Manchester City and it’s only natural that at some point in that process, whether conceived of by the agent as a bargaining tactic or as an organic inquiry from the club, that Bayern Munich would get involved. When transfer fees in the realm of €50M are being tossed around one can almost bet on that fact that Bayern or Real Madrid are going to be in the equation sooner or later.
But should Bayern Munich be in this equation?
Leroy Sane is yet another in a very long line of extremely impressive U21 German talent that Bayern Munich have been linked to. Mario Götze, Julian Draxler, Max Meyer, Leroy Sane, Julian Brandt, Marco Reus, Cristoph Kramer. That’s really just the biggest young German names in the past six years and there are more. Of those, only Mario Götze actually made the switch and that contract ultimately cost Bayern Munich €22M per season — €10M in amortized transfer fees in addition to the €12M in wages. That is a very steep price to pay for the production Bayern Munich has received and ultimately the rest of that very impressive list of talent have really fallen short of the production level
Leroy Sane doubles down on that move. A four-year contract like the one Götze received would hit the books at €12.5 per year — assuming €50M is the transfer fee -- and getting into a bidding war with the likes of Manchester City and the Premier League’s newly insane wage and transfer structure is likely to end poorly for Bayern.
On the other end of the spectrum, Bayern Munich are only holding out for this season. They currently have in the neighborhood of €220M committed to player payroll next season; nearly €50M in amortized transfer fees and another €170M in wages. However with nine players currently entering the final year of their contract, including €34M in salary tied up in the trio of Mario Götze, Arjen Robben, and Franck Ribery there is a significant financial opening next summer.
The obvious catch is Sane may not be available next summer. Adding Sane this season, would likely add something in the range of €15-20M to the Bayern Munich wage structure. While the looming sale of Mario Götze would easily be enough to offset that additional burden but you run the risk of tying far too much of your capital up in a subset of five identical players. Between Ribery, Robben, Costa, Coman, and Sane that transfer/wage valuation could easily top €55M for what ultimately will amount to two positions on the field in a given game.
Adding in the wages being paid to Thomas Müller and the lucrative €15M extension Bayern are pushing Robert Lewandowski to sign and Bayern Munich could conceivably pay seven players €85M. That’s before you start addressing the question of central attacking midfield depth with the departure of Mario Götze.
The kind of capital investment being talked about here for even one season limits mid-season options and could be disastrous if Bayern Munich sees the kind of injury form that lead them to making the loan move for Serdas Tasci last January. It’s definitely financially possible, but it’s also a huge risk to bear for an organization that doesn’t have a a history of making risky moves.