FanPost

Mythbusters: A look at Thomas Müller's 2016-2017 season

Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

So, if you've read anything Bayern-related over the past year or so, you've likely heard all about Müller's alleged struggles under Ancelotti.

You've probably heard how he was stuck in a terrible slump all season and you might've heard how playing so much over the past few years has finally caught up with him and he's just spent. You might have heard that we're better off with him on the bench right now or that Thiago is a better option for the #10 role or that Müller simply isn't a good tactical fit for Ancelotti's system. On the opposite side, you probably heard people saying that Müller didn't get to play his preferred position enough. You might've heard claims that Müller wasn't bad, he just struggled to adapt to the new trainer's tactics; perhaps he adjusted his game and was able to make an impact in ways besides goals and assists.

So how do we know which side to believe? Was Müller's 2016-2017 season really that bad, or have the reports of his demise been greatly exaggerated? In this fanpost, we'll take a look at a handful of different claims floating around the internet, papers, commentary shows, etcetera regarding Müller's 2016-2017 performance - for what it's worth, I've heard each and every one of these claims made at some point in the 2016-2017 season and hereafter - they're not just hypotheticals that I invented myself. Buckle up as we take a look at the numbers and attempt to separate fact from fiction regarding our beloved Raumdeuter.

Claim: Müller's 2016/2017 was a "down year."

Before looking at Müller's 2016/2017 season, we should take a look at the seasons that preceded it. Now, I'm of the opinion that Müller's stellar 2015/2016 season has caused his 2016/17 to be viewed with a bit more scrutiny...which is understandable. That being said, if we take a look at Müller's career numbers, I think we'll find that his 2015/2016 was statistically a huge outlier:

First: Career numbers, 2006-2007 season through 2014-2015.
During this period, Müller averaged 44 games played per season, 16 goals, 12 assists, and 3343 minutes. This works out to 0.75 combined goals and assists per 90 minutes.

Now, 2015-2016 numbers:
For this season, Müller played in 49 games, scoring 32 goals and adding 12 assists in 3819 minutes of play - a combined 1.01 goals and assists per 90. Obviously, this was a huge improvement when compared to his entire prior body of work.

So how did his previous season compare?

For 2016/2017, Müller played in 42 games, scoring 9 goals and adding 17 assists in 3004 minutes of play. I think the first thing that will jump out for many people is the contrast in scoring - from 32 to 9 goals seems like quite a steep drop-off. However, you'll find that these numbers still shake out to 0.77 goals+assists per 90 - interestingly, a higher average tally than his "pre-2015/2016" career averages!

Claim: Müller was able to influence the game in ways other than scoring and assisting in 2016/2017.

Now, as I mentioned, some would claim that Müller simply adapted his game this season and had to learn to impact and influence the game without scoring and assisting so much. There's a little bit of truth to this, I suppose.

Most notably, we find that Müller was creating more chances, making more successful passes, winning more duels, and committing less fouls in 2016/2017 than he was in 2015/2016. Similarly, Müller's numbers for key passes per 90 were pretty close as well, with 1.91 per 90 in 16/17 compared to 2.12 per 90 in 15/16.

Claim: Müller only struggled when playing out of position/not in his preferred position.

Per Transfermarkt, Müller was deployed in four different positions this season: SS, RW, CF, and LW. I think most of us would agree that playing behind the CF in a 4-2-3-1 is Müller's preferred (and most effective position). Let's see if the numbers support this notion.

In 2016/2017 Müller played as follows:
SS - 19 matches, 5 goals, 11 assists; 1368 minutes
RW - 13 matches, 2 goals, 6 assists; 1031 minutes
CF - 7 matches, 1 goal, 0 assists; 410 minutes
LW - 2 matches, 1 goal, 0 assists; 173 minutes

This works out as follows:
CF - 0.22 goals + assists / 90 minutes
LW - 0.52 goals + assists / 90 minutes
RW - 0.70 goals + assists / 90 minutes
SS - 1.05 goals + assists / 90 minutes
In what might surprise you (or maybe not, depending on which side you fall on), Müller's numbers when playing his "preferred" position were fantastic - even better than his best season ever!

Claim: Bayern is better without Müller in the starting XI

When looking at this claim, I find the most direct way is to simply compare when Müller is on the pitch versus when he's off the pitch. Additionally, we'll take a look at when Müller's on the pitch in his preferred position/formation (4231) compared to when he's on the pitch out of position/formation (433).

First, check out Müller's overall impact. When Müller plays for Bayern, regardless of position/formation, we've got 82 goals for, 12 against - for a goal differential of +70. When he's off the pitch, we've scored 44 and conceded 25 for a goal differential of +19.

Similarly, in 4-2-3-1 with Müller behind the striker, we've scored 44 and conceded 7 -- +37.
In 4-3-3 with Müller, it's 38 for, 5 against -- +33.

We should also note the average points per game earned from each of our attackers:
Lewandowski - 2.36
Costa - 2.32
Ribery - 2.28
Müller - 2.24
Robben - 2.22
Coman - 2.20

Truth be told, there's not a lot of variation here outside of Lewandowski being ahead by a considerable margin. But that's okay: this tells us that, by and large, our performance does not suffer when Müller is on the pitch - when he's in the starting XI we're earning just about as many points as when he's not; sometimes more, sometimes less.

Claim: Lewandowski plays better with Thiago than he does with Müller

Overall, Lewandowski scores at a higher rate with Müller than Thiago - even more so when Müller is playing behind him. By my count, Lewandowski played 29 matches alongside Müller this season. In 29 matches, he scored 30 goals - an average of 1.03 goals scored per match when playing with Müller.

Lewandowski also played 35 matches with Thiago. Now, granted, there's some overlap here as in some matches all three were on the pitch at the same time - but in 35 matches with Thiago on the pitch, Lewandowski scored 31 goals - for an average of 0.89 goals per match.

Perhaps it would be more prudent to compare both Thiago and Müller when they play behind the striker - as it was often posited that Thiago was a better fit there than Müller was this past season. While it's a bit closer, in 15 matches with Müller at CAM, Lewandowski scored 18 goals - 1.2 goals per match. Similarly, in 8 matches with Thiago at CAM, Lewandowski scored 8 goals - 1.0 per match.

Claim: Müller disappeared in big matches/didn't contribute enough in these matches.

To analyze this claim, I looked at Müller's performance vs top-5 Bundesliga teams, UCL knockout rounds, and in the Pokal (last 16 only). In such matches, Müller only managed one assist. However, I think the data here isn't enough to draw a meaningful conclusion from: Out of 1560 available "top minutes" (minutes available in the 'important matches') Müller was only given 406 minutes - only 26% of possible minutes in important matches. Additionally, Müller was only given one important match at his preferred position - in which we defeated Köln 3-0. For me, this simply isn't a big enough sample size to say conclusively that Müller did or didn't underperform in important matches.

Myth = Busted!

For me, the numbers are pretty clear. Müller’s performance in 2016-2017 was largely consistent with his career thus far and was even better in some regards. I feel that Müller’s 2015-2016 season caused this previous year to be viewed more harshly than it ought to have been - rather than claiming this year was poor, we should rather point towards an exceptional 15-16 season from Müller.

Going forward, I expect Müller to continue to be an important member of FC Bayern and I believe our team truly plays at its best when he’s playing behind the striker. Personally, I anticipate Thomas, Thiago, and James performing very well together in the upcoming season.

So what do you think? How would you rate Müller’s 2016-2017 season? Be sure to vote in the poll below and give your reasoning in the comments!

P.S. I still don’t want him on penalties this year, okay.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bavarian Football Works readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of BFW editors or staff. Visit our Fanpost section at the top of the page.